Media predictions for 2009

In a post called "Pragmatic Media Predictions for 2009," NIU and Northern Star alumna Diane Mermigas, who writes the daily "On Media" column for Mediapost (requires free subscription), lays out a very iffy coming year for all media. A couple of her predictions:

Some local TV broadcasters and newspapers will begin to monetize enough to stay in business. Some internet players will begin to dabble more in this huge void. Relevant local information, social sharing, retail coupons, school and community data, sports scores, car pools, etc. remain a big missed opportunity. It will be delivered to internet-connected mobile devices, including smartphones. A new player will emerge and do for local content and services online what Craigslist did for regionalized classified advertising.

Major advertisers such as automotives, financial services, retail and real estate will not return any time soon; they will be diminished and different when they rebound a year from now. That is a disaster for local media, which could easily see more than half their ad revenue base wiped out in 2009. For instance, automotives generally have comprised 40% of local TV income.